Published Thursday, 18 June 2026
On Thursday, 18 June 2026, the US equity market, as tracked by SPY, QQQ, and DIA, experienced a broad rally, significantly influenced by positive geopolitical developments. Market sentiment was largely uplifted by news of a preliminary US-Iran peace deal, which also contributed to a decline in oil prices. MarketCrunch AI models offer a varied outlook for the next trading session and into the end of the week, with differing directional forecasts and confidence levels across these major ETFs.
Market Overview
The primary catalyst for market activity on Thursday, 18 June 2026, revolved around geopolitical news. Reports of a preliminary peace deal between the US and Iran spurred a risk-on sentiment across equity markets, leading to a rally in major indices. This development also coincided with a notable drop in oil prices, further contributing to positive investor sentiment. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100, represented by QQQ, showed a significant rally, while broader market indices like SPY and DIA also benefited from the improved global outlook. Discussions regarding AI security rules in the White House also provided a backdrop for the tech sector, indicating ongoing regulatory attention to key growth industries.
AI View by ETF
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
For the next trading session, the MarketCrunch AI model projects a slight decline for SPY, indicating a potential decrease of approximately 1.14%. This forecast is accompanied by a high confidence level. The model identifies a modestly upward long-term trend, supported by several short-term averages and volatility bands. However, some longer-term trend indicators and short-term momentum signals are exerting downward pressure, contributing to a mixed technical assessment. The model's end-of-week analysis anticipates SPY trading within a range of $734.00 to $753.09, with a predicted close around $745.28 and a confidence level of 71.87%. Volatility is currently assessed as moderate.
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
The MarketCrunch AI model forecasts a decline of approximately 2.39% for QQQ in the next trading session, with a high confidence level. The underlying trend structure for QQQ remains strongly upward, supported by robust long-term averages and positive directional strength. Despite this strong trend, short-term momentum appears to be leveling off, suggesting a period of consolidation. Volatility for QQQ is currently considered high. The end-of-week prediction suggests a trading range between $706.33 and $746.27, with a predicted close near $712.67 and a confidence level of 81.485%.
DIA - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
DIA is projected by the MarketCrunch AI model to experience a modest increase of approximately 0.53% in the next trading session, though this forecast comes with a low confidence level. The model observes a modestly upward trend, supported by short-term momentum and volume indicators. However, some opening price dynamics and short-term exponential averages are exerting downward influence. Momentum is currently assessed as neutral, and volatility is moderate. The end-of-week outlook for DIA indicates a predicted trading range of $508.05 to $518.29, with a close around $510.65 and a confidence level of 61.565%.
News Drivers
A significant driver for market sentiment on Thursday, 18 June 2026, was the evolving situation surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal. President Trump's statements on Truth Social highlighted the market's positive reaction to these peace efforts, noting lower oil prices and rising stocks. This sentiment was echoed in headlines reporting a rally in the Nasdaq 100 and broader US equities. Separately, discussions at the White House concerning AI security rules with companies like Anthropic indicate ongoing regulatory focus on the technology sector. While this specific news item for SPY carried a 'Very Bearish' sentiment score on Wednesday, 17 June 2026, it appears to have been overshadowed by the broader geopolitical optimism and subsequent market rally on Thursday.
What to Watch Next
Looking ahead, market participants will likely monitor further developments in the US-Iran peace negotiations and their continued impact on global oil prices and broader risk appetite. The mixed technical signals from the MarketCrunch AI models for SPY, QQQ, and DIA suggest that while underlying trends for some indices remain robust, short-term momentum could be subject to fluctuations. Key levels of support and resistance will be important to observe. Additionally, any new macroeconomic data releases or corporate earnings announcements could introduce fresh catalysts. The ongoing dialogue around AI regulation may also shape sentiment, particularly for growth-oriented sectors.
For more detailed forecasts, visit MarketCrunch AI:
Cover: Photo by Dominic Müser on Pexels.
